African swine fever might bury China's small farms - Taipei Times

For farmers Zhang Shiping and Bai Fuqin in northeast China, there is little to celebrate this Lunar New Year.

Since African swine fever struck a farm in the nearby city of Shenyang in August last year, the couple has racked up about 300,000 yuan (US$44,478) in debt, 10 times what they make in a good year raising pigs.

The incurable disease has since traveled thousands of kilometers, striking mainly small farms in the world’s biggest pork-producing country and triggering unprecedented upheaval in China’s US$1 trillion hog sector.

Although Zhang’s farm was not infected, measures to halt its spread have effectively killed his family’s livelihood.

Beijing banned the transport of live pigs from infected provinces in September last year, part of its “protracted war” on a disease that typically takes years to eradicate.

The restrictions crippled trade, particularly in northeast Liaoning Province, which produces about one-third more pigs than it consumes and relies heavily on exporting.

Prices in the province last month dropped to less than 4 yuan per kilogram — the lowest price in a decade — just weeks away from the Lunar New Year holiday, normally a time of peak pork demand.

Zhang and Bai have gotten rid of about 30 pigs, losing about 800 yuan on each, after feeding them months after they should have been slaughtered while waiting for prices to pick up.

They still have almost 50 left, now so overweight and fatty that no processors want them.

“We can barely survive,” Bai said in an interview at her modest farmhouse in Changtu County, a two-and-a-half-hour drive north of Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning.

Bai and three other farmers in Changtu said that they would not continue raising pigs, even though they have few other options in the region, one of China’s slowest-growing.

Tens of thousands like them are expected to abandon pig farming after months of weak prices and restrictions on moving pigs to market. That would reduce production in the country by one-fifth this year, according to some estimates, and boost prices and demand for cheaper imports.

“I have experienced all kinds of ups and downs in the pig industry, but nothing has been as hard and bitter as this year,” Changtu pig farmer Sun Hongbo said.

He said that he would quit pig farming for good and seek manual work after the holiday.

Small farmers producing fewer than 500 pigs for slaughter each year account for about 40 percent of China’s output, or about 280 million pigs per year, Rabobank Groep figures from 2016 showed.

However, the African swine fever epidemic looks set to accelerate change in an industry already shifting toward more industrialized farms, particularly in the north.

“Even if you want to raise pigs, the government won’t give you loans, because you lost money. Feed sellers won’t lend you feed either. How can you raise pigs then?” Sun said.

Policy measures put in place to tackle African swine fever strongly favor larger farms considered better able to prevent the spread of disease with higher hygiene standards.

A government document dated Dec. 27 last year that loosened the rules on transporting pigs out of infected counties only applied to incorporated farms.

Another rule has outlawed the use of kitchen waste for pig feed, significantly boosting costs for many farmers who cannot buy commercial feed at a reasonable price.

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